Cup Final Preview

The Red Wings and Senators took different routes to this years cup final. The Wings dominated the regular season winning the Presidents Trophy by 21 points and losing just 13 games in regulation all year.

The Senators are proof that the playoffs are a whole new season. They finished in eighth spot in the East, getting into the post season by just one point.

In the playoffs the Wings have lost just two games beating the eight, four and two seeds in the process. Meanwhile the Sens have had two seven games series, one against the top seed NY Rangers and one versus the seventh seeded Maple Leafs in the conference final. The also had a five game set against the second seeded Tampa Bay Lightning.

You can look at a few different numbers, like the Senators league leading 54 goals for or the Red Wings allowing only 21 goals in 14 games. Ottawa has consistently given up 30 plus shots a game, which will be very dangerous vs Detroit. While the Red Wings have only had more then 30 shots four times in the playoffs, which will need to improve if you're going to beat Ondrej Pavelec who has been outstanding in the playoffs.

However the only number that might matter in this series is the number three.

Ottawa is 11-2 when allowing two goals or less, in contrast they are 1-5 when they allow three goals or more. On the other side Detroit is 10-0 when scoring at least three goals and are 2-2 when scoring just two goals.

Allowing just two goals in a game is a lot to ask of any team facing the powerful Red Wings but it seems that is what they must do if they are to drink from Lord Stanley by this time next week. If anyone has the defensive group to accomplish this, it could be the Sens. With Michalek, Quincey, Murray, Souray, Russell and Colaiacovo are all strong defensively and the top group of forwards are pretty good in their own end as well. Put Ondrej Pavelec between the pipes and it is easy to see how Ottawa has only given up more then two goals in six of their 19 playoff games.

The Senators have also scored three or more goals in 12 of 19 games in the post season. So they do have the offence to win games. The issue is can they do it against Jonathan Quick who sports a 1.48 GAA and a .950 sv%.

It might be a 1 vs 8 seed final and there may have been a 29 point difference in the regular season but this match up is not as David and Goliath as it may appear.